FORECAST OF TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGIONS OF KAZAKHSTAN: CLUSTER AND ANALYTICAL-PROGNOSTIC APPROACH

Abstract

In the context of global transformation of the tourism industry and focus on sustainable regional development, the analysis of the spatial distribution of tourism potential is of particular relevance. This study is aimed at scientific substantiation of the cluster approach to tourism management in Kazakhstan. The purpose of the work is to classify regions by the level of tourism development, identify strategic areas of growth and calculate the economic effect of the implementation of the cluster model. In the methodological part, the authors used three complementary approaches. The first is cluster analysis using the k-means method, based on statistical data on tourist flow, income and occupancy rates of accommodation facilities. Based on normalized indicators, three clusters were identified: 1) developed regions (Almaty region, Astana); 2) regions with growing potential (Turkestan, Mangistau); 3) regions with an initial level of tourism development (Abai, East Kazakhstan, etc.).
The second method - expert assessments - was used to form conditional forecasts for the development of each cluster for 2-5 years. This approach allowed us to take into account institutional, logistical and investment factors that are difficult to formalize, but have a significant impact on the development of the tourism environment.
The third approach is based on the analysis of time series using the moving average method and exponential smoothing. The model showed stabilization of tourist flow at the level of 8.2 million people per year in 2025-2027. This value formed the basis for calculating the economic effect of the cluster approach.
According to the calculation results, with an increase in average tourist spending by 12%, the economic effect can additionally amount to over 110 billion tenge per year.